Mark Schlabach discusses why Tennessee is overpriced in the initial 2025 FPI rankings, according to ESPN’s CONFIRMED.

In the wake of the release of ESPN’s initial 2025 Football Power Index (FPI) rankings, veteran college football analyst Mark Schlabach is raising eyebrows—and questions—about one team in particular: the Tennessee Volunteers.

Appearing on ESPN’s CONFIRMED, Schlabach didn’t hold back when addressing what he believes to be a significant overvaluation of Tennessee in the rankings. The Volunteers, who were slotted in the Top 10 of the early FPI release, were described by Schlabach as a team “benefiting more from hype than substance.”

“I just don’t see how you can justify Tennessee being that high given what they lost on both sides of the ball,” Schlabach said during the segment. “FPI is a predictive metric, sure, but it still needs a foundation in proven performance—and right now, Tennessee’s resume doesn’t back up that ranking.”

What’s Behind the Ranking?

According to ESPN’s FPI methodology, the rankings aim to predict a team’s performance based on a combination of returning production, past performance, strength of schedule, and coaching. Tennessee’s high placement appears to hinge on two key factors: the return of quarterback Nico Iamaleava and a favorable 2025 schedule that avoids several top-tier SEC opponents.

Schlabach, however, cautioned viewers not to overestimate the impact of those advantages.

“Nico Iamaleava is a talented quarterback—there’s no doubt about that—but we’re still talking about a guy with limited starting experience,” he said. “The SEC is too tough a conference to assume Tennessee can just ride potential to a New Year’s Six bowl.”

Losses in the Trenches

Tennessee’s offensive line, which was a strength in 2024, saw multiple departures to the NFL Draft and graduation. Defensively, the Volunteers also lost key starters, including two All-SEC performers in the secondary. Schlabach highlighted these losses as major red flags that the FPI might be glossing over.

“They’ve got to prove they can protect the quarterback and stop elite offenses, especially in crunch time,” Schlabach added. “That’s not something an algorithm can project with complete accuracy—especially not in June.”

A Cautionary Tale?

While preseason projections like FPI are useful for setting early narratives, Schlabach urged fans and analysts alike to approach Tennessee’s ranking with caution.

“We’ve seen this before—teams ride a strong finish into next season’s rankings only to come crashing back to earth. I’m not saying Tennessee can’t be good, but Top 10? That’s a stretch.”

With fall camp still months away and plenty of football to be played, Schlabach’s comments are likely to fuel debates across SEC fanbases. For Tennessee, the challenge now becomes living up to—or redefining—the expectations set by ESPN’s computers.