This is how the Buffalo Bills are projected by the betting market to compare to their opponents in the 2024 NFL season. The entire 2024 NFL schedule has been made public, and along with it, the odds for every game played during the season have been disclosed.
Even though lines can and will change in the days before each game due to a variety of circumstances, they currently provide a pretty unbiased and objective indicator of a team’s caliber. Because it is intended to do so, the betting market typically supports the team that is regarded to be superior. However, examining each team’s specific game lines can reveal something about how people who are not part of their news bubble or thought process perceive their strength.
After the schedule was released, Ben Baldwin, also known as @computercowboy on X, created a tier list of NFL teams. Each team was ranked according to “how many points a team would be favored against a league average opponent on a neutral field.” The Buffalo Bills are still considered one of the NFL’s stronger teams by the betting public in spite of their offseason moves; as such, they would be favored by 2.5 points on a neutral field versus an average team, placing them in Baldwin’s “probably good” tier. The sixth-highest number in the league is the 2.5 points Buffalo would be favored by against an opponent averaging the league. The only teams with higher totals are the Detroit Lions (2.6), Baltimore Ravens (4), San Francisco 49ers (5.2), Kansas City Chiefs (4.3), and Baltimore Ravens (2.8).
The Bills had a lot of turnover during the offseason, but they still managed to rank favorably because they replaced established starters like Gabriel Davis, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, and Stefon Diggs with younger, less expensive players. Even while Buffalo is still talented, the team is undoubtedly not as strong as it once was, so regression from the team is reasonable.
Josh Allen, the quarterback, is the great equalizer, though. As the first player in NFL history to record four straight seasons with 40 or more total touchdowns, he is one of the best quarterbacks in the game. If he can make it five straight in 2024, he could validate this tier list.
